What will the Polish zloty exchange rate be in 2024?
The exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the US dollar is an important indicator of the state of the Polish economy.
It reflects the dynamics of prices for goods and services imported into Poland, as well as exported goods and services produced within the country.
In recent years, the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the US dollar has shown a downward trend, that is, there has been a gradual decline in the value of the zloty.
In 2023, the average exchange rate was 4.20 zlotys per dollar, which is 10% lower than in 2022, when the geopolitical situation in the region worsened.
But it is assumed that this rate will remain no more than until May 2024, as seasonal changes in the rate will begin.
Seasonal changes in the Polish zloty exchange rate
During the year, the exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the US dollar usually shows seasonal dynamics due to changes in supply and demand for the currency.
In the spring, the zloty exchange rate usually falls, and in the fall it begins to rise against foreign currencies.
This is due to the fact that spring is the beginning of the holiday season in Poland, when many Poles go on vacation to other countries and en masse exchange their national currency for foreign currency.
In addition, production volumes are reduced, workers go on vacation, the number of goods sent for export and the flow of foreign currency decreases.
As a result, the supply of foreign currency is reduced, and the demand for it only grows; this trend is usually observed until the fall.
In autumn, the vacation and tourist season ends, and the demand for foreign currency begins to decline. The influx of foreign currency and its supply on Forex are increasing. The predominance of foreign currency supply over demand forms a downward trend for the USDPLN currency pair.
It should be noted that this pattern is not a rule that is strictly followed, therefore, deviations in the behavior of the zloty exchange rate may be observed, despite the existing seasonal pattern.
Polish zloty exchange rate forecast for 2024
In general, in 2024 the upward trend in the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the US dollar is expected to continue. This is due to the fact that the Polish economy continues to grow and inflation in Poland is at a relatively low level.
However, seasonal changes in the Polish zloty exchange rate may cause the zloty exchange rate to fluctuate throughout the year. In particular, the zloty exchange rate is expected to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half of the year.
Based on an analysis of various factors, the following forecasts can be made for the exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the US dollar for 2024:
- In the first quarter of 2024, the US dollar exchange rate may rise to 4.10 zlotys per dollar.
- In the second quarter of 2024, the zloty exchange rate may stabilize at 4.15-4.20 zlotys per dollar.
- In the third quarter of 2024, the dollar exchange rate may begin to decline to 4.00 zlotys per dollar or lower, as elections in the United States will take place at this time.
- In the fourth quarter of 2024 it will continue to strengthen and reach 3.80 zlotys per dollar by the end of the year.
Of course, these forecasts are only indicative and can be adjusted depending on the development of the economic situation in Poland and the world.
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