How a stopping assistance to the United States will affect the Ukrainian economy

Since the beginning of a full -scale war, Ukraine has significantly depended on international financial support, especially from the United States, which provided significant military, humanitarian and budgetary assistance.

These funds allowed not only to purchase weapons and ammunition, but also to cover critically important state expenses, including pensions, salaries to civil servants and infrastructure support.

However, in March 2025, US President Donald Trump ordered to suspend all military assistance to Ukraine, referring to the need to revise relations and promoting peace negotiations on its conditions.

This creates serious risks for the Ukrainian economy, which is already experiencing significant pressure due to war and destroyed infrastructure.

Without external financing, the Ukrainian government will face the need for a urgent revision of budget policy and search for alternative sources of expenditure coverage

Financial consequences: growth in expenses and borrowing

The stop of American support will force Ukraine to increase its own defense costs, since the need for weapons and ammunition remains extremely high.

This will lead to the redistribution of the budget in favor of the military sphere by reducing expenses for other sectors of the economy, such as education, healthcare, social protection and infrastructure projects.

An additional burden on the budget will force the government to look for new sources of financing, which will inevitably lead to an increase in public debt. Ukraine already actively uses borrowing mechanisms through the IMF, the European Union and the domestic bond market.

However, further growth of debt can lead to a deterioration in the country's credit rating and an increase in interest rates on new loans.

Raising the discount rate and the threat of emission

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will be forced to respond to a new economic reality.

In the context of a reduction in external financing and increasing government spending, the following measures are possible:

• Improving the NBU in order to contain inflation and stabilization of hryvnias. This will lead to a rise in costs of loans and a decrease in business activity.

• Activation of the domestic borrowing market , which will entail an increase in the profitability of bonds and strengthening the debt load.

• With a critical budget deficit - the launch of the printing press , which will sharply increase inflation risks and lead to the depreciation of hryvnias.

Currency risks: hryvnia devaluation and inflation growth

One of the most serious consequences of stopping American assistance will be the pressure on the hryvnia course.

A decrease in the receipt of dollars to the country will reduce the volume of foreign exchange reserves, which will make it difficult to retain a stable national currency course.

In conditions of lack of financial resources, the following scenarios are possible:

The fall of the hryvnias to the dollar and the euro , which will cause the rise in the cost of imported goods and the increase in prices.

Inflation and decrease in the purchasing power of the population . The deficiency of external financing and the possible emission of hryvnias will accelerate inflationary processes, which will especially hit the most vulnerable segments of the population.

The cessation of American assistance will be a serious test for the Ukrainian economy. Without external support, the government will be forced to increase military expenses, take new loans, increase rates and even launch the emission of hryvnias.

These actions will cause a drop in the national currency, an increase in inflation, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population and reduce financing of key civil areas.

In the long run, such events can destabilize the economic and political situation in the country, complicating its restoration after the war.