What will the Polish zloty exchange rate be in 2024?

The exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the US dollar is an important indicator of the state of the Polish economy.

It reflects the dynamics of prices for goods and services imported into Poland, as well as exported goods and services produced within the country.

In recent years, the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the US dollar has shown a downward trend, that is, there has been a gradual decline in the value of the zloty.

In 2023, the average exchange rate was 4.20 zlotys per dollar, which is 10% lower than in 2022, when the geopolitical situation in the region worsened.

At the beginning of 2024, the exchange rate is around 4.00 Polish zlotys per US dollar, moving within a narrow price corridor.

However, it is expected that this rate will remain in effect until no more than May 2024, as the seasonal exchange rate change will begin.

Seasonal changes in the Polish zloty exchange rate

Over the course of a year, the Polish zloty to US dollar exchange rate typically exhibits seasonal dynamics due to changes in supply and demand for currency.

In spring, the zloty exchange rate usually falls, and in autumn it begins to rise against foreign currencies.

This is due to the fact that spring is the beginning of the holiday season in Poland, when many Poles go on holiday to other countries and massively exchange their national currency for foreign currency.

In addition, production volumes are reduced, workers go on vacation, the amount of goods sent for export and the receipt of foreign currency decrease.

As a result, the supply of foreign currency is reduced, while demand for it only increases; this trend is usually observed until autumn.

In the fall, vacations and the tourist season end, and demand for foreign currency begins to decline. The inflow of foreign currency and its supply on the forex market increase. The predominance of foreign currency supply over demand creates a downward trend in the USDPLN currency pair.

It should be noted that this pattern is not a rule that is strictly observed, so deviations in the behavior of the zloty exchange rate can also be observed, despite the existing seasonal pattern.

Polish zloty exchange rate forecast for 2024

Overall, the Polish zloty's upward trend against the US dollar is expected to continue in 2024. This is due to the Polish economy continuing to grow and inflation in Poland remaining relatively low.

However, seasonal fluctuations in the Polish zloty exchange rate may cause fluctuations throughout the year. Specifically, the zloty is expected to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second.

Based on an analysis of various factors, the following forecasts for the Polish zloty to US dollar exchange rate for 2024 can be made:

• In the first quarter of 2024, the US dollar exchange rate may rise to 4.10 zlotys per dollar.

• In the second quarter of 2024, the zloty exchange rate may stabilize at 4.15-4.20 zlotys per dollar.

• In the third quarter of 2024, the dollar exchange rate may begin to decline to 4.00 zlotys per dollar and below, as elections will be held in the United States at that time.

• In the fourth quarter of 2024, it will continue to strengthen and by the end of the year it will reach 3.80 zlotys per dollar.

Of course, these forecasts are only indicative and may be adjusted depending on the development of the economic situation in Poland and the world.

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