Forecast of the dollar and euro exchange rates for 2024, taking into account existing trends

In 2024, the leading world currencies are still the US dollar and the euro.

But which of these currencies should you bet on in the coming year and in what is it better to store the bulk of your funds?

What will be the forecast for the US dollar exchange rate against the European currency Euro, taking into account the events that will occur in 2024?

At the moment, the situation is rather ambiguous, since both currencies are subject to pressure from the unstable political situation and the economic crisis.

The euro is under pressure from disagreements within the European Union over aid to Ukraine and investor concerns about growing geopolitical tensions in the region.

Furthermore, the European Commission has downgraded its GDP for the European Union to 1.2%, with inflation projected at 2.7%. This means, adjusted for inflation, a 1.5% contraction in output is predicted.

But things are not so bad with the European currency if we look at what is happening in the United States.

What will worsen the dollar-euro exchange rate forecast in 2024?

The situation in the US looks more than threatening, with the following factors putting pressure on the US currency:

• The situation in Texas is a migration crisis that threatens to escalate into an armed conflict.
• The political confrontation between Republicans and Democrats has reached its highest level in recent years.
• The projected inflation rate in the US is 3.2%, while the optimistic GDP forecast is 1.5%. This means that, taking inflation into account, production will decline by 1.7%.

However, most forecasts don't take into account what's happening in Texas and how it will impact investor sentiment in the American economy. It's highly likely that real economic performance in the US in 2024 will be even stronger than forecast.

The upcoming elections in the fall of 2024 are not adding optimism to the dollar. A serious battle for the presidential seat will unfold, and political instability always negatively affects the exchange rate of a national currency.  

And these are far from all the troubles that await the United States of America in 2024.

From all of the above, we can conclude that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rate for 2024 will be within the price corridor of 1.14 - 1.19 US dollars per 1 euro.

It is clear that this is only a forecast; the situation can change at any moment under the influence of fundamental factors .