Who is Arthur Hayes and how accurate are his predictions?

Arthur Hayes is the co-founder and former CEO of derivatives exchange BitMEX and a graduate of Wharton (UPenn).

Arthur Hayes's predictions

Before entering the cryptocurrency space, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Citigroup (Hong Kong branch). In 2014, he launched the derivatives and popularized perpetual Bitcoin futures.

In 2022, he admitted to AML/KYC violations in the US regarding BitMEX operations and was sentenced to two years of house arrest.

He currently writes market forecasts and actively invests in cryptocurrencies. Artur doesn't provide specific entry signals, but rather creates long-term forecasts and writes essays.

How Arthur Hayes formulates forecasts

Arthur Hayes's forecasts are based on monitoring liquidity in the US financial system and are based on fundamental analysis of the situation rather than technical analysis of the trend.

Arthur Hayes

It monitors the "water level," which is determined by the TGA (Treasury General Account) and RRP (Fed Overnight Repo) balances. When the Treasury spends money (TGA falls) and "excess" dollars leave the Fed (RRP falls), liquidity returns to the markets. This influx of government money is the main fuel for the growth of risky assets, including Bitcoin.

Hayes also takes into account the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the Treasury's monetary policy plans. He believes that economic pressure will force the authorities to ease policy, which would be beneficial for BTC. Ultimately, Hayes constructs large-scale scenarios with target values ​​(for example, Bitcoin at $250,000) based on how government cash flows will support or suppress markets.

Table: Arthur Hayes' 10 predictions and the actual outcome (as of September 30, 2025)

When / sourceForecast (in simple terms)What actually happenedResult
January 27–30, 2025 — essay "The Ugly," posts on X Before a new rise, BTC may correct to $70–75k In the spring of 2025, BTC really did go into the $70–75k It came true :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
January 27, 2025 — "The Ugly" and subsequent interviews BTC could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. As of September 30, 2025, BTC ≈ $114k (target is far away) Not yet realized / in progress :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
July–August 2025 — Interviews and Posts $10k–$20k in this cycle ; ETH favored over SOL As of September 30, 2025, ETH was ≈ $4.2k. Not yet realized / distant goal :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
September 20, 2025 — Comments on TGA When the Treasury's Treasury Gateway (TGA) reaches $850 billion , the "up only" will begin. The thesis is fresh, the valuation horizon is months, analysts argue. It's too early to judge :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
July 11, 2025 — Posts/Comments The start of the "monster alt season"; ETH to $10k as part of the scenario Some alts showed strong surges in the summer of 2025; the overall "ultraboom" did not last long. Partial / controversial :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}
April 2024 – An essay on the "halving drawdown" BTC price drop is possible around the halving During the halving and immediately after, there were declines and volatility (news/analysis) Most likely it came true (in the short term) :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}
Sept. 2025 – "Liquidity is more important than the 4-year cycle" BTC growth in 2025-26 depends primarily on liquidity , not on the halving cycle. This isn't a "price-by-date" price, but a framework. It's verified against a set of macrodata. Not subject to binary evaluation (framework thesis) :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}
September 2025 - Interviews/Calls BTC could reach $200k by mid-2026 The deadline is still far off; as of September 30, 2025, it's $114,000. It's too early to judge :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}
Aug. 2025 — Essay "Buffalo Bill" Three altcoins (e.g. ENA, ETHFI, HYPE) could yield tens to hundreds of x's by 2028 The deadline is 2028; there were some interim moves, but no results. It's too early to judge / very risky :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}
Sept. 2025 — long-term thesis $3.4 million per BTC by 2028 with aggressive money printing (YCC, etc.) Long-term horizon; depends on Treasury/Fed policy Too early to judge / too bold :contentReference[oaicite:11]{index=11}

 

Analyzing the forecasts, one of three has so far come true within 2025 (BTC correction to $70-75k), while two targets (BTC $250k by the end of 2025; ETH $10-20k "in a cycle") have not yet been met. In this case, the share of forecasts that have come true is 33% as of today, but the year is not over yet.

What Hayes does well

Hayes excels at identifying market phases through the lens of liquidity , as seen during the pullback to 70,000 per bitcoin. His writing is useful as a risk/cash flow radar, not as a "buy/sell button."

How to apply forecasts in practice

The long-term targets from the latest predictions (BTC $250k, ETH $10–20k) are best interpreted as upper-level planning guidelines: where to take partial profits, what drawdowns are you prepared for, and when to transfer some positions to cash.

But you shouldn't look for "today" signals from Hayes - this is a macro picture, a long-term guideline, not scalping.

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