Should You Sell US Dollars Now? A 2025 Analysis
Talk of the collapse of the world's most popular currency, the US dollar, has been circulating for several years now, and there are many reasons for such a scenario.
As of May 2025, the issue of selling US dollars is becoming increasingly relevant against the backdrop of instability in currency markets and an uncertain economic situation in the world.
Investors around the world are closely monitoring the US currency's performance, trying to anticipate future movements and make the most profitable financial decisions.
The question of whether to sell dollars now is troubling not only major financiers but also individuals who hold savings in this currency. After all, approximately 40% of citizens still prefer the US dollar.
The current situation with the US dollar
Since the beginning of 2025, the US dollar has shown significant weakness against major global currencies. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a key measure of the currency's strength against a basket of other global currencies, has fallen by approximately 9%.
Analysts attribute the decline to uncertainty in US fiscal policy, trade tensions and possible changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
And the general decline against the US dollar is a significant factor negatively affecting the exchange rate of the American currency.
Global economic factors affecting the dollar
Currently, there are several key factors that influence the US dollar exchange rate:
Federal Reserve Policy: Uncertainty about the Fed's future actions (whether to lower or raise interest rates) is causing investor uncertainty. If the Fed takes a more accommodative stance, this could lead to further weakening of the dollar.
Trade and Tariffs: Rising trade tensions, particularly with large economies such as China and the EU, are increasing volatility in currency markets and putting pressure on the dollar.
Global Inflation Trends: Persistently high inflation rates are causing investors to be more cautious and shift capital out of dollars and into more stable assets such as gold or other higher-yielding currencies.
Forecasts and analyst opinions on whether to sell dollars now
Experts' opinions on the dollar's future vary, but almost all of them state that the dollar will gradually weaken:
| Analyst / Company | Forecast for 2025 | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | -5–7% | Budget deficit risks, trade uncertainty |
| Morgan Stanley | Stabilization | Geopolitical risks and changes in monetary policy are possible |
| UBS | Further decline | In case of easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve |
- Goldman Sachs : Forecasts a gradual weakening of the dollar by 5-7% by the end of 2025, noting the risks of persistent budget deficits and uncertainty in trade relations.
- Morgan Stanley : Sees short-term dollar stabilization but warns of potential risks from geopolitical instability and monetary policy changes.
- UBS : Believes the dollar could continue to decline if the Federal Reserve confirms a move to looser monetary policy.
Given the current economic uncertainty and exchange rate volatility, selling US dollars may not be the best idea. Such a transaction will likely result in a loss in value and the purchase of another currency at a higher price.
I wouldn't rush into an exchange; I'd wait until there's a truce on the trade war front, as negotiations are currently underway.
In my opinion, it is advisable to sell American dollars, but this should be done not at the minimum exchange rate, but when the value of the dollar has recovered slightly.
