Should I exchange dollars for euros, or should I choose alternative options?
By mid-June 2025, the euro to dollar exchange rate had firmly established itself above 1.15, continuing the upward trend of recent months.
In six months, the American currency has weakened by more than 10% against the euro, causing panic among those who preferred to keep their savings in US dollars.
The main reasons for this situation were the soft policy of the US Federal Reserve, the trade war, the unstable political situation, and concerns about the growing budget deficit.
Market participants increasingly view the dollar as an overheated asset, while the euro is temporarily regaining its status as a more stable reserve currency.
This is causing many investors and currency holders to wonder: is it time to exchange dollars for euros?
What is happening: the strengthening of the euro or the fall of the dollar?
Although the euro is rising against the dollar—it stands at 1.1550 on June 15—this strengthening is not reflecting any real improvement in the eurozone economy. This is primarily a consequence of the weakening dollar, which is also falling against other currencies.
| Indicator | USA (Q1 2025) | EU/Eurozone (Q1 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter) | –0,3 % | +0,3 % |
| Annual GDP growth rate | +1,4–1,5 % | +1,1 % / +0,9 % |
| Unemployment rate | 4,2 % | 6,2 % |
| Inflation | 3.6% (PCE) | 2.0% (HICP) |
The US Federal Reserve is signaling monetary easing and rate cuts, leading to capital flight from the dollar into alternative assets.
The euro is growing only against the US dollar, while no particular strengthening has been observed against other currencies.
The EU economy is facing serious problems:
- In Germany, manufacturing plants are closing en masse, especially in the mechanical engineering and chemical industries;
- Unemployment and budget deficit are growing in France;
- Italy and Spain are heading towards recession .
Rising defense spending, inflationary pressure, and falling consumer demand paint a worrying picture. Economic growth in the eurozone is slowing, and the single currency is holding up solely due to investor flight from the even weaker dollar.
Conclusion: is it worth exchanging dollars for euros in the current situation?
If the goal is tourism expenses or short-term purchases, exchanging dollars for euros now may be a smart move, as tourist centers may offer even worse exchange rates.
However, if you simply want to convert your savings into euros, you should think carefully. Both regions are experiencing instability, and although the euro has temporarily strengthened, the economic situation in EU countries remains unstable.
Furthermore, exchange is accompanied by losses due to commissions and spreads, especially in offline transactions; the actual exchange rate can reach 1.18–1.19. Furthermore, it's not a given that the situation will remain stable at any moment and the dollar will rise again.
However, given the ongoing pressure on the dollar, it makes sense not to buy dollars, and to give preference to euros or Swiss francs when making new purchases.
The franc is more stable given Switzerland's neutrality and tight monetary policy. The euro, on the other hand, can be useful as part of a currency diversification strategy , especially in the short term.
An excellent alternative would also be online investments in gold on the exchange or the purchase of digital gold .
